The chart below represents the evolution over time of the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of the underlying forward price distribution for a 3 months time horizon.

For example, on the 4th Feb, the 25th percentile of the forward price is around $50k i.e. the probability of the forward price being above $50k is 25%.

More generally, the n-th percentile is the value K verifying:

$$ P(F_{t} \geq K) = n\% $$

Where:

- \(P\): risk-neutral probability
- \(F_{t}\): forward price for tenor t
- \(K\): n-th percentile
- \(n\%\): probability level \((25\%, 50\%, 75\%)\)