The probability of BTC or ETH being above X$ is calculated per maturity, as shown below:

This probability depends first on the model we use in pricing the options and on many parameters:

- \(F\): forward price of the underlying
- \(K\): strike level
- \(\tau\): time-to-maturity
- \(\sigma_{K}\): implied volatility for strike level \(K\)

In the Black-Scholes framework, where the underlying follows a log-normal distribution, the risk neutral probability \(P_{K}\) of being above a strike \(K\) is:

\begin{equation*}

P_{K} = N(d_{2})

\end{equation*}

with:

\begin{equation*}

d_{2} = \frac{Log(\frac{F}{K}) - \frac{\sigma_{K}^{2}}{2}\tau}{\sigma_{K} \sqrt{\tau}}

\end{equation*}

where \(N(.)\) is the standard normal cumulative distribution function.